Bruce Feiler - Where God Was Born, Abraham, Walking The Bible

Ahmadinejad = Bush?
Sunday, December 10, 2006

A radical, right-wing president abuses a weak mandate at home to venture too far afield in spreading his pugnacious international policies abroad and loses support of his own people in critical off-year elections. Not just Bush. Ahmadinejad, too! A fascinating report explains how the embattled Iranian leader is rapidly losing support at home -- first among the voters, second among the mullahs. Here's the key graf:

Ahmadinejad had hoped to win a majority of the local government authorities for two reasons. First, he counted on a low turnout that always favors the more radical Khomeinist candidates. Four years ago, Ahmadinejad won control of the Tehran Municipal Council, the largest local government in Iran, and became mayor of the capital, in an election that attracted only 15 percent of the qualified voters.

The second reason that Ahmadinejad had in mind was the possibility of forging a broad alliance of all radical revolutionary factions while the more conservative groups led by Rafsanjani and former Majlis Speaker Ayatollah Mahdi Karrubi appeared unable to unite.

With just days before polling, however, both of Ahmadinejad's calculations appear in doubt. The conservative and moderate groups have abandoned an earlier strategy to boycott the election and presented lists of candidates in more than half of the constituencies. The opposition groups acting outside the regime have also toned down their calls for boycott. Thus, the turnout may be higher than Ahmadinejad had hoped. A higher turnout could mean more middle class voters going to the polls to counterbalance the peasants and the urban poor who constitute the president's electoral base.

What to make of this news: "A setback for Ahmadinejad in the two elections next week may not necessarily signal a desire on the part of the ruling elite to step back from the brink of an open conflict with the US."

For us, the bottom line is clear: TALK TO IRAN. Isolate Achmadenijad. Step back from the brink. Long term trends in Iran remain in our favor.

Labels: Middle East

Posted by B Feiler at 10:20 AM
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